Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | MAN -258 NIA +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MAN -7.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -5.6 (+3.4) | 138.7 (+10.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MAN -6.2 (+2.8) | 138.3 (+10.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MAN -6.2 (+2.8) | 139.2 (+9.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -6.0 (+3.0) | 139.7 (+9.3) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | MAN 76 – 69 NIA |
| Mar 2, 2025 | MAN 85 – 70 NIA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MAN 72 – 65 NIA |
| Jan 28, 2024 | MAN 84 – 78 NIA |
| Jan 6, 2024 | NIA 81 – 67 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 5-15 |
| Home | 7-7 | 6-7 |
| Away | 3-12 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -11.7 (#328) | -16.1 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#280) | -2.68 (#343) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#298) | -3.44 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#269) | 0.377 (#347) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 27.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 61.1% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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