Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | NIA +120 MAN -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +7 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | NIA -2.1 (-9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -0.0 (-7.0) | 136.9 (+8.1) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MAN -0.2 (-6.8) | 135.7 (+9.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -0.6 (-7.6) | 136.3 (+8.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -0.9 (-7.9) | 138.9 (+6.1) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | MAN 79 – 70 NIA |
| Mar 2, 2025 | MAN 85 – 70 NIA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MAN 72 – 65 NIA |
| Jan 28, 2024 | MAN 84 – 78 NIA |
| Jan 6, 2024 | NIA 81 – 67 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-22 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 8-12 |
| Home | 6-7 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-14 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.3 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 79.6 |
| Massey | -13.4 (#342) | -12.6 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.37 (#348) | -1.60 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.95 (#346) | -2.18 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#328) | 0.436 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 62.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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