Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | NIA +105 MAN -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +15 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | MAN -0.8 (-14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -0.8 (-14.2) | 146.3 (+8.7) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -0.5 (-15.5) | 144.8 (+10.2) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MAN -0.4 (-14.6) | 145.2 (+9.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -0.5 (-14.5) | 146.1 (+8.9) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | MAN 76 – 69 NIA |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MAN 79 – 70 NIA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MAN 72 – 65 NIA |
| Jan 28, 2024 | MAN 84 – 78 NIA |
| Jan 6, 2024 | NIA 81 – 67 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 12-8 |
| Home | 6-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#314) | -5.4 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#315) | -0.69 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#325) | -1.04 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#310) | 0.477 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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