Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -800 XAV +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +43 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -9.3 (+33.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (+7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -10.3 (+32.7) | 144.1 (+10.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -10.1 (+32.9) | 146.2 (+8.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -10.3 (+32.7) | 145.8 (+9.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -11.3 (+31.7) | 147.4 (+7.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | CONN 93 – 68 XAV |
| Feb 4, 2026 | CONN 92 – 60 XAV |
| Dec 31, 2025 | CONN 90 – 67 XAV |
| Jan 26, 2025 | XAV 76 – 72 CONN |
| Dec 19, 2024 | CONN 94 – 89 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 9-11 |
| Home | 17-0 | 11-7 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 12-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W13 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 17.2 (#10) | 11.6 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.53 (#3) | 1.15 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.25 (#4) | 2.12 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#12) | 0.565 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.74 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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