Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | UAB +155 MEM -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +9 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -5.0 (+14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.4 (+24.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -2.9 (+11.9) | 158.5 (+26.5) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -3.8 (+12.8) | 156.1 (+28.9) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -3.9 (+12.9) | 156.2 (+28.8) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -4.4 (+13.4) | 156.6 (+28.4) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UAB 78 – 67 MEM |
| Feb 6, 2026 | MEM 90 – 80 UAB |
| Mar 16, 2025 | MEM 84 – 72 UAB |
| Mar 2, 2025 | MEM 88 – 81 UAB |
| Jan 26, 2025 | MEM 100 – 77 UAB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-5 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-5 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#158) | 9.2 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#110) | 2.19 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#128) | 2.91 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#94) | 0.610 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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