Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ULM +170 ARST -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ULM +3 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -4.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -4.2 (+7.2) | 145.9 (+21.1) | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -5.0 (+8.0) | 143.7 (+23.3) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -3.1 (+6.1) | 144.1 (+22.9) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -3.7 (+6.7) | 145.2 (+21.8) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARST 102 – 94 ULM |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ARST 103 – 70 ULM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ARST 94 – 67 ULM |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ARST 95 – 70 ULM |
| Feb 3, 2024 | ARST 95 – 80 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-12 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#308) | -0.8 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#317) | -0.68 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#304) | -0.59 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#291) | 0.455 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 25.3% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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