Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ARST -10000 ULM +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +25 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -22.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -18.2 (+6.8) | 148.5 (+16.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -17.4 (+7.6) | 145.6 (+19.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -18.2 (+6.8) | 144.7 (+20.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -18.2 (+6.8) | 147.3 (+17.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARST 102 – 94 ULM |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ARST 103 – 70 ULM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ARST 94 – 67 ULM |
| Feb 3, 2024 | ARST 95 – 80 ULM |
| Jan 28, 2024 | ULM 85 – 82 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 3-15 |
| Home | 14-2 | 5-11 |
| Away | 8-6 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#91) | -13.0 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#117) | -2.31 (#340) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#98) | -2.82 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#75) | 0.378 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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