Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | ARST -2800 ULM +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +33 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -19.7 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -17.2 (+15.8) | 157.5 (+15.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -15.0 (+18.0) | 155.1 (+17.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -16.3 (+16.7) | 155.4 (+17.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -15.6 (+17.4) | 155.5 (+17.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARST 102 – 94 ULM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ARST 94 – 67 ULM |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ARST 95 – 70 ULM |
| Feb 3, 2024 | ARST 95 – 80 ULM |
| Jan 28, 2024 | ULM 85 – 82 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 1-17 |
| Home | 11-4 | 3-10 |
| Away | 9-7 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.0 | 85.4 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#149) | -15.8 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#126) | -3.41 (#361) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#124) | -4.15 (#361) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#73) | 0.367 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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