Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Over |
| Money | ULM +900 ARST -1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +8 | 196 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -14.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.8 (+27.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -12.1 (+4.1) | 163.4 (+32.6) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -13.1 (+5.1) | 161.5 (+34.5) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -13.2 (+5.2) | 161.6 (+34.4) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -10.9 (+2.9) | 158.5 (+37.5) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | ARST 103 – 70 ULM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ARST 94 – 67 ULM |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ARST 95 – 70 ULM |
| Feb 3, 2024 | ARST 95 – 80 ULM |
| Jan 28, 2024 | ULM 85 – 82 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 11-7 |
| Home | 3-10 | 11-4 |
| Away | 1-15 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.4 | 78.0 |
| Massey | -15.8 (#351) | 1.3 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.48 (#361) | 0.32 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.21 (#361) | 0.45 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.372 (#358) | 0.536 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 41.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 38.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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