Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ARST -400 ULM +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +15 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -10.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (+26.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -7.9 (+7.1) | 150.5 (+24.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -8.5 (+6.5) | 147.3 (+27.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -8.3 (+6.7) | 148.3 (+26.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -9.9 (+5.1) | 147.7 (+27.3) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARST 102 – 94 ULM |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ARST 103 – 70 ULM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ARST 94 – 67 ULM |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ARST 95 – 70 ULM |
| Jan 28, 2024 | ULM 85 – 82 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-11 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#184) | -8.1 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#240) | -1.40 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#220) | -1.66 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#263) | 0.440 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 25.5% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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