Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | ULM +1500 ARST -5000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +27 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -16.1 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -14.2 (-12.8) | 148.4 (+12.6) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -14.4 (-12.6) | 149.6 (+11.4) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -14.8 (-12.2) | 146.1 (+14.9) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -15.2 (-11.8) | 148.7 (+12.3) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARST 102 – 94 ULM |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ARST 103 – 70 ULM |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ARST 95 – 70 ULM |
| Feb 3, 2024 | ARST 95 – 80 ULM |
| Jan 28, 2024 | ULM 85 – 82 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 13-5 |
| Home | 5-11 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-12 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -13.0 (#347) | 6.3 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.36 (#344) | 0.67 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.87 (#342) | 1.06 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.388 (#352) | 0.556 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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