Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -275 BGSU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +16 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -7.9 (+8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -8.1 (+7.9) | 149.3 (+10.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -6.3 (+9.7) | 148.9 (+11.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -5.9 (+10.1) | 149.9 (+10.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -5.9 (+10.1) | 151.4 (+8.6) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | TOL 77 – 76 BGSU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | BGSU 80 – 70 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | TOL 73 – 72 BGSU |
| Feb 21, 2025 | BGSU 69 – 68 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TOL 84 – 71 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 12-5 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.0 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#141) | -2.3 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#109) | 0.20 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#130) | -0.04 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#122) | 0.483 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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