Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -125 BGSU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +1 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -0.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -1.4 (-0.4) | 146.2 (+6.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -1.0 (+0.0) | 145.9 (+7.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -0.9 (+0.1) | 148.3 (+4.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -0.7 (+0.3) | 148.4 (+4.6) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | BGSU 80 – 70 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | TOL 73 – 72 BGSU |
| Feb 21, 2025 | BGSU 69 – 68 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TOL 84 – 71 BGSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | BGSU 76 – 68 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-7 |
| Away | 5-9 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#138) | 1.5 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#150) | -0.06 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#136) | -0.00 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#98) | 0.494 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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