Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | BGSU +145 TOL -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BGSU +8 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -3.3 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.2 (-15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -1.7 (+9.7) | 153.4 (-9.4) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -4.0 (+12.0) | 152.2 (-8.2) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -1.9 (+9.9) | 154.7 (-10.7) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -2.2 (+10.2) | 154.3 (-10.3) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | TOL 77 – 76 BGSU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | BGSU 80 – 70 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | TOL 73 – 72 BGSU |
| Feb 21, 2025 | BGSU 69 – 68 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TOL 84 – 71 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 12-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#233) | 2.7 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#189) | 0.94 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#206) | 0.83 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#208) | 0.551 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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