Betting Lines
| Spread | BGSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | TOL +100 BGSU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +1 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | BGSU -1.7 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -0.1 (+0.9) | 148.0 (-3.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BGSU -0.8 (+1.8) | 148.5 (-3.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BGSU -1.0 (+2.0) | 150.0 (-5.0) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BGSU -0.8 (+1.8) | 151.8 (-6.8) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | TOL 77 – 76 BGSU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | BGSU 80 – 70 TOL |
| Feb 21, 2025 | BGSU 69 – 68 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TOL 84 – 71 BGSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | BGSU 76 – 68 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-7 |
| Away | 5-9 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#159) | 5.2 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#162) | 0.72 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#143) | 0.84 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#116) | 0.535 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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