Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | BGSU +120 TOL -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +13 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -0.9 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -1.1 (-11.9) | 154.9 (+0.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -1.0 (-12.0) | 153.4 (+1.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -1.3 (-11.7) | 154.6 (+0.4) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -1.3 (-11.7) | 154.8 (+0.2) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | TOL 77 – 76 BGSU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | BGSU 80 – 70 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | TOL 73 – 72 BGSU |
| Feb 21, 2025 | BGSU 69 – 68 TOL |
| Feb 24, 2024 | BGSU 76 – 68 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-8 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 81.1 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#280) | -2.7 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.72 (#319) | 0.17 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.43 (#320) | -0.21 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.405 (#328) | 0.520 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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