Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -320 BGSU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BGSU +1 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -8.6 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.6 (-22.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -7.9 (-8.9) | 152.2 (-15.2) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -8.1 (-9.1) | 150.9 (-13.9) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -6.9 (-7.9) | 155.3 (-18.3) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -6.9 (-7.9) | 153.7 (-16.7) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | TOL 77 – 76 BGSU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | BGSU 80 – 70 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | TOL 73 – 72 BGSU |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TOL 84 – 71 BGSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | BGSU 76 – 68 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-8 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.1 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#216) | -8.5 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#135) | -1.70 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#169) | -2.29 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#102) | 0.408 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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