Betting Lines
| Spread | BGSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | BGSU -180 TOL +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BGSU +10 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | BGSU -4.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BGSU -4.4 (+5.6) | 143.1 (+6.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BGSU -3.2 (+6.8) | 144.2 (+5.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BGSU -4.5 (+5.5) | 145.4 (+4.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BGSU -3.9 (+6.1) | 143.9 (+6.1) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | TOL 77 – 76 BGSU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | TOL 73 – 72 BGSU |
| Feb 21, 2025 | BGSU 69 – 68 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TOL 84 – 71 BGSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | BGSU 76 – 68 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#136) | 0.5 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#165) | 0.05 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#159) | 0.23 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#183) | 0.528 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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