I got a baby's brain and an old man's heart "I'm Eighteen" - Alice Cooper
Bowling Green Falcons
80 70
FINAL Conference
Toledo Rockets
Mid-American Conference · Stroh Center · February 14, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread BGSU -3.5 Home covered
O/U 150.5 Under
Money BGSU -180 / TOL +150
Model Predictions
Spread Total BGSU win
Actual BGSU +10 150 Won
Massey BGSU -4.7 (+5.3)
Massey Totals 151.5 (-1.5)
Bradley-Terry 61%
Weighted B-T 60%
Baseline Plus ML BGSU -4.5 (+5.5) 145.4 (+4.6) 65%
Model 4 ML BGSU -3.2 (+6.8) 144.2 (+5.8) 65%
Model 3 ML BGSU -4.4 (+5.6) 143.1 (+6.9) 69%
Baseline ML BGSU -3.9 (+6.1) 143.9 (+6.1) 66%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 12, 2026 TOL 7776 BGSU
Jan 24, 2026 TOL 7372 BGSU
Feb 21, 2025 BGSU 6968 TOL
Jan 24, 2025 TOL 8471 BGSU
Feb 24, 2024 BGSU 7668 TOL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BGSU TOL
Overall 18-14 19-15
Conference 9-9 11-7
Home 10-7 11-4
Away 6-6 5-9
Neutral 2-1 3-2
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 76.8 79.8
Avg Pts Against 72.7 77.4
Massey 2.2 (#136) 0.5 (#154)
Bradley-Terry 0.00 (#165) 0.05 (#161)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.07 (#159) 0.23 (#150)
RPI 0.500 (#183) 0.528 (#114)
Shooting & Four Factors BGSU TOL
FG% 46.3% 47.3%
3PT% 33.5% 35.8%
REB / G 34.8 32.4
OREB / G 10.0 10.3
AST / TO 1.09 1.39
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.0% 53.2%
TOV% 17.3% 15.3%
ORB% 29.3% 29.9%
FT Rate 26.3% 25.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.7% 54.7%
Opp TOV% 19.8% 18.7%
DRB% 72.8% 64.3%
Opp FT Rate 26.6% 19.3%

Game Analysis

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