Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | RICH +138 DAY -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -2.2 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (+0.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -1.4 (+6.4) | 132.4 (+0.6) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -1.4 (+6.4) | 132.0 (+1.0) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -1.3 (+6.3) | 131.4 (+1.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -1.5 (+6.5) | 132.4 (+0.6) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | DAY 65 – 60 RICH |
| Mar 1, 2025 | DAY 74 – 64 RICH |
| Jan 28, 2023 | DAY 86 – 60 RICH |
| Mar 12, 2022 | RICH 68 – 64 DAY |
| Mar 1, 2022 | DAY 55 – 53 RICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-1 | 15-0 |
| Away | 7-6 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#79) | 13.0 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#63) | 3.17 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#79) | 3.92 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#78) | 0.660 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 40.1% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 18.4% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 13.9% |
Game Analysis
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