Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +4 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -3.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -4.3 (-8.3) | 129.1 (+2.9) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -3.9 (-7.9) | 130.6 (+1.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -3.8 (-7.8) | 130.5 (+1.5) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -3.5 (-7.5) | 130.4 (+1.6) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | DAY 65 – 60 RICH |
| Mar 1, 2025 | DAY 74 – 64 RICH |
| Jan 27, 2024 | RICH 69 – 64 DAY |
| Jan 28, 2023 | DAY 86 – 60 RICH |
| Mar 1, 2022 | DAY 55 – 53 RICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-6 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.2 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#56) | 5.9 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#67) | 1.11 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#62) | 1.33 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#54) | 0.553 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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