Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -500 RICH +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +26 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -8.5 (+17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.0 (+25.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -6.6 (+19.4) | 131.1 (+14.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -6.7 (+19.3) | 131.0 (+15.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -6.7 (+19.3) | 130.7 (+15.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -6.9 (+19.1) | 131.4 (+14.6) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | DAY 65 – 60 RICH |
| Mar 1, 2025 | DAY 74 – 64 RICH |
| Jan 27, 2024 | RICH 69 – 64 DAY |
| Mar 12, 2022 | RICH 68 – 64 DAY |
| Mar 1, 2022 | DAY 55 – 53 RICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#74) | 2.2 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#112) | 0.16 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#93) | 0.43 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#110) | 0.521 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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