Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -1600 RICH +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -15.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -13.4 (-3.4) | 142.0 (-4.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -12.4 (-2.4) | 139.8 (-1.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -12.9 (-2.9) | 142.2 (-4.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -13.0 (-3.0) | 143.7 (-5.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | DAY 65 – 60 RICH |
| Jan 27, 2024 | RICH 69 – 64 DAY |
| Jan 28, 2023 | DAY 86 – 60 RICH |
| Mar 12, 2022 | RICH 68 – 64 DAY |
| Mar 1, 2022 | DAY 55 – 53 RICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 16-2 | 6-9 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#81) | -5.1 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#72) | -0.81 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#71) | -0.93 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#55) | 0.478 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 19.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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