Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | RICH +180 DAY -218 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +5 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -2.1 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -2.7 (-2.3) | 144.7 (-19.7) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -2.6 (-2.4) | 145.2 (-20.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -3.5 (-1.5) | 142.6 (-17.6) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -2.3 (-2.7) | 143.3 (-18.3) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | DAY 74 – 64 RICH |
| Jan 27, 2024 | RICH 69 – 64 DAY |
| Jan 28, 2023 | DAY 86 – 60 RICH |
| Mar 12, 2022 | RICH 68 – 64 DAY |
| Mar 1, 2022 | DAY 55 – 53 RICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-7 | 14-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#129) | 7.5 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#180) | 1.49 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#154) | 1.96 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#224) | 0.579 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 36.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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