Betting Lines
| Spread | EKU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | EKU -333 UNF +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EKU +13 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | EKU -5.4 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (+16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EKU -4.5 (+8.5) | 146.4 (+18.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EKU -5.9 (+7.1) | 149.5 (+15.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EKU -5.1 (+7.9) | 144.4 (+20.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EKU -5.0 (+8.0) | 145.3 (+19.7) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | UNF 87 – 85 EKU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | EKU 86 – 81 UNF |
| Jan 10, 2025 | EKU 79 – 74 UNF |
| Feb 23, 2023 | UNF 77 – 64 EKU |
| Jan 23, 2022 | EKU 67 – 58 UNF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EKU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 9-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#214) | -4.7 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#237) | -0.42 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#239) | -0.53 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#230) | 0.467 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EKU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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