Betting Lines
| Spread | EKU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 169.5 Under |
| Money | EKU -170 UNF +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EKU +5 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | EKU -6.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.5 (-21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EKU -4.7 (+0.3) | 164.5 (-11.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EKU -4.2 (+0.8) | 160.7 (-7.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EKU -4.2 (+0.8) | 164.7 (-11.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EKU -4.2 (+0.8) | 166.2 (-13.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | UNF 87 – 85 EKU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | EKU 86 – 81 UNF |
| Jan 27, 2024 | EKU 89 – 76 UNF |
| Feb 23, 2023 | UNF 77 – 64 EKU |
| Jan 23, 2022 | EKU 67 – 58 UNF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EKU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-9 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 85.7 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#204) | -4.6 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#230) | -0.11 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#232) | -0.31 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#208) | 0.520 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EKU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 62.2% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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