Betting Lines
| Spread | GWEB -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | GWEB -400 UPST +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GWEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GWEB +5 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | GWEB -9.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GWEB -7.0 (-2.0) | 145.5 (-0.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GWEB -8.4 (-3.4) | 142.9 (+2.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GWEB -7.8 (-2.8) | 143.0 (+2.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GWEB -8.5 (-3.5) | 145.0 (-0.0) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | GWEB 65 – 64 UPST |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UPST 71 – 61 GWEB |
| Jan 24, 2026 | GWEB 67 – 65 UPST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GWEB 83 – 63 UPST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GWEB 96 – 87 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GWEB | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 6-8 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#200) | -7.7 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#205) | -1.57 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#228) | -2.17 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#180) | 0.431 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GWEB | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 34.5% |
Game Analysis
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