Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | MORG +230 HOW -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +6 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -6.7 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -6.7 (+12.7) | 148.0 (+16.0) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -6.3 (+12.3) | 150.7 (+13.3) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -6.7 (+12.7) | 151.2 (+12.8) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -6.8 (+12.8) | 151.7 (+12.3) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | HOW 84 – 59 MORG |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MORG 78 – 77 HOW |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MORG 91 – 90 HOW |
| Feb 22, 2025 | HOW 87 – 81 MORG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HOW 100 – 95 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 9-5 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.0 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -15.5 (#355) | -5.1 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.85 (#353) | -1.13 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.40 (#352) | -1.26 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.389 (#338) | 0.427 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 62.2% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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