Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | ARK +210 UK -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +6 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | UK -7.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.4 (-51.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -4.9 (-1.1) | 160.8 (-40.8) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -5.3 (-0.7) | 159.0 (-39.0) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -6.4 (+0.4) | 162.0 (-42.0) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -5.9 (-0.1) | 159.0 (-39.0) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UK 85 – 77 ARK |
| Feb 2, 2025 | ARK 89 – 79 UK |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UK 111 – 102 ARK |
| Mar 4, 2023 | UK 88 – 79 ARK |
| Feb 8, 2023 | ARK 88 – 73 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-7 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 89.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 79.7 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#123) | 14.2 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#83) | 2.45 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#96) | 2.93 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#85) | 0.612 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 32.8% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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