Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -298 UK +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +8 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -5.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -7.1 (-15.1) | 157.7 (+4.3) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -6.3 (-14.3) | 159.1 (+2.9) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -6.4 (-14.4) | 159.9 (+2.1) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -6.7 (-14.7) | 158.2 (+3.8) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 2, 2025 | ARK 89 – 79 UK |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UK 111 – 102 ARK |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UK 63 – 57 ARK |
| Mar 4, 2023 | UK 88 – 79 ARK |
| Feb 8, 2023 | ARK 88 – 73 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 17-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.2 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 18.7 (#19) | 16.3 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.28 (#17) | 2.44 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.33 (#17) | 3.19 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.641 (#14) | 0.582 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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