Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | UK -250 ARK +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +15 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | UK -1.9 (-16.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -3.2 (-18.2) | 140.0 (+21.0) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -3.0 (-18.0) | 137.4 (+23.6) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -2.7 (-17.7) | 140.1 (+20.9) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UK -2.6 (-17.6) | 139.6 (+21.4) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UK 85 – 77 ARK |
| Feb 2, 2025 | ARK 89 – 79 UK |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UK 111 – 102 ARK |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UK 63 – 57 ARK |
| Mar 4, 2023 | UK 88 – 79 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 6-4 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#38) | 12.8 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#35) | 1.94 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#37) | 2.40 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#47) | 0.610 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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