Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | UK -500 ARK +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +10 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | UK -10.3 (-20.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -9.3 (-19.3) | 154.6 (+13.4) | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -11.0 (-21.0) | 158.5 (+9.5) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -10.5 (-20.5) | 157.4 (+10.6) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UK -10.0 (-20.0) | 155.6 (+12.4) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UK 85 – 77 ARK |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UK 111 – 102 ARK |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UK 63 – 57 ARK |
| Mar 4, 2023 | UK 88 – 79 ARK |
| Feb 8, 2023 | ARK 88 – 73 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.4 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 19.3 (#12) | 12.2 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.49 (#8) | 1.59 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.30 (#11) | 2.13 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.653 (#6) | 0.537 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.72 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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