Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | UK -1200 ARK +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +9 | 213 | Won |
| Massey | UK -15.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.9 (+42.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -12.8 (-3.8) | 166.2 (+46.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -13.0 (-4.0) | 168.6 (+44.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -13.7 (-4.7) | 169.0 (+44.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -12.5 (-3.5) | 168.0 (+45.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UK 85 – 77 ARK |
| Feb 2, 2025 | ARK 89 – 79 UK |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UK 63 – 57 ARK |
| Mar 4, 2023 | UK 88 – 79 ARK |
| Feb 8, 2023 | ARK 88 – 73 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-3 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 89.0 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 79.8 |
| Massey | 15.2 (#18) | 3.2 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#23) | 0.94 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#19) | 1.12 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#44) | 0.536 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.7% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 33.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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