Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +9 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -5.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -5.7 (-14.7) | 144.8 (+22.2) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -4.1 (-13.1) | 142.1 (+24.9) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -4.7 (-13.7) | 143.6 (+23.4) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -5.6 (-14.6) | 144.9 (+22.1) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UK 85 – 77 ARK |
| Feb 2, 2025 | ARK 89 – 79 UK |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UK 111 – 102 ARK |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UK 63 – 57 ARK |
| Feb 8, 2023 | ARK 88 – 73 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 14.3 (#15) | 12.3 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#36) | 2.07 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#34) | 2.60 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#23) | 0.580 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 38.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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