Betting Lines
| Spread | BELL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | BELL -163 JAX +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BELL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BELL +6 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | BELL -4.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (-7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BELL -2.8 (+3.2) | 137.1 (-5.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BELL -1.1 (+4.9) | 135.9 (-3.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BELL -0.9 (+5.1) | 136.8 (-4.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BELL -1.4 (+4.6) | 137.6 (-5.6) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | BELL 82 – 79 JAX |
| Jan 23, 2026 | BELL 77 – 70 JAX |
| Feb 9, 2025 | JAX 73 – 64 BELL |
| Jan 9, 2025 | JAX 74 – 59 BELL |
| Feb 22, 2023 | BELL 63 – 61 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BELL | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 5-11 |
| Home | 6-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-16 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -9.3 (#316) | -9.8 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.71 (#351) | -0.87 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.81 (#336) | -1.21 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#333) | 0.458 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BELL | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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