Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | JAX -218 BELL +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BELL +7 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | JAX -3.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -3.3 (-10.3) | 137.9 (+9.1) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -3.7 (-10.7) | 135.2 (+11.8) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -2.5 (-9.5) | 138.1 (+8.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -3.0 (-10.0) | 139.5 (+7.5) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | BELL 82 – 79 JAX |
| Feb 9, 2025 | JAX 73 – 64 BELL |
| Jan 9, 2025 | JAX 74 – 59 BELL |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BELL 69 – 63 JAX |
| Feb 22, 2023 | BELL 63 – 61 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-14 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 83.3 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#289) | -8.1 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#261) | -1.68 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#267) | -2.15 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#231) | 0.425 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 27.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 58.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.7% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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