Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | BELL +280 JAX -360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BELL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +15 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | JAX -8.3 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -8.5 (-6.5) | 139.9 (-6.9) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -8.8 (-6.2) | 139.5 (-6.5) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -10.6 (-4.4) | 140.4 (-7.4) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -10.8 (-4.2) | 139.1 (-6.1) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | BELL 82 – 79 JAX |
| Jan 23, 2026 | BELL 77 – 70 JAX |
| Feb 9, 2025 | JAX 73 – 64 BELL |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BELL 69 – 63 JAX |
| Feb 22, 2023 | BELL 63 – 61 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BELL | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-26 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 12-6 |
| Home | 5-10 | 11-3 |
| Away | 0-16 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -13.6 (#351) | -1.2 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.74 (#359) | 0.12 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.32 (#355) | 0.54 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.332 (#364) | 0.531 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BELL | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 28.2 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 20.5% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.1% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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