Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | JAX -1400 BELL +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +9 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | JAX -17.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -14.0 (-5.0) | 144.7 (-7.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -14.2 (-5.2) | 144.9 (-7.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -13.8 (-4.8) | 146.5 (-9.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -12.8 (-3.8) | 146.4 (-9.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | BELL 82 – 79 JAX |
| Jan 23, 2026 | BELL 77 – 70 JAX |
| Jan 9, 2025 | JAX 74 – 59 BELL |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BELL 69 – 63 JAX |
| Feb 22, 2023 | BELL 63 – 61 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 5-26 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 2-16 |
| Home | 11-3 | 5-10 |
| Away | 7-9 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 81.3 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#170) | -14.4 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#160) | -3.93 (#360) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#142) | -4.48 (#361) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#162) | 0.341 (#362) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 20.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 59.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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