Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Over |
| Money | JAX -200 BELL +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BELL +2 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | JAX -5.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 115.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -3.3 (-5.3) | 119.8 (+4.2) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -3.8 (-5.8) | 124.3 (-0.3) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -4.0 (-6.0) | 125.8 (-1.8) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -3.9 (-5.9) | 124.9 (-0.9) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | BELL 82 – 79 JAX |
| Jan 23, 2026 | BELL 77 – 70 JAX |
| Feb 9, 2025 | JAX 73 – 64 BELL |
| Jan 9, 2025 | JAX 74 – 59 BELL |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BELL 69 – 63 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-16 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-10 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.0 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.7 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#231) | -5.7 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#199) | -0.40 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#190) | -0.71 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#188) | 0.484 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 28.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 5.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 19.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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