Betting Lines
| Spread | BELL -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | BELL -122 JAX +102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BELL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BELL +3 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | BELL -1.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BELL -0.8 (+2.2) | 142.8 (+18.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -0.3 (+3.3) | 142.5 (+18.5) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BELL -0.4 (+2.6) | 144.4 (+16.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BELL -0.4 (+2.6) | 145.1 (+15.9) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | BELL 77 – 70 JAX |
| Feb 9, 2025 | JAX 73 – 64 BELL |
| Jan 9, 2025 | JAX 74 – 59 BELL |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BELL 69 – 63 JAX |
| Feb 22, 2023 | BELL 63 – 61 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BELL | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 2-13 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.3 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#280) | -8.6 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#288) | -1.36 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#282) | -1.71 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#311) | 0.454 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BELL | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.6% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 27.1 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.4% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 22.2% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.3% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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