Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | LAF -320 BU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +14 | 110 | Lost |
| Massey | LAF -4.4 (-18.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -2.4 (-16.4) | 124.6 (-14.6) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -1.5 (-15.5) | 125.4 (-15.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -2.5 (-16.5) | 128.2 (-18.2) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -3.5 (-17.5) | 125.7 (-15.7) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | BU 77 – 73 LAF |
| Jan 8, 2026 | BU 83 – 67 LAF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BU 66 – 64 LAF |
| Jan 3, 2025 | LAF 60 – 46 BU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | LAF 59 – 51 BU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-10 | 9-7 |
| Away | 6-9 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.6 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#291) | -8.0 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#271) | -1.72 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.42 (#286) | -1.94 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#271) | 0.403 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 15.8% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 79.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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