He took it all too far, but boy could he play guitar. "Ziggy Stardust" - David Bowie
Patriot League · Case Gym · January 21, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread BU -4.5 Away covered
O/U 145.5 Over
Money BU -230 / LAF +190
Model Predictions
Spread Total BU win
Actual BU +4 150 Won
Massey BU -6.5 (-2.5)
Massey Totals 152.3 (-2.3)
Bradley-Terry 76%
Weighted B-T 71%
Baseline Plus ML BU -4.1 (-0.1) 143.8 (+6.2) 68%
Model 4 ML BU -4.2 (-0.2) 142.5 (+7.5) 60%
Model 3 ML BU -4.1 (-0.1) 142.6 (+7.4) 68%
Baseline ML BU -4.8 (-0.8) 143.7 (+6.3) 71%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 8, 2026 BU 8367 LAF
Mar 1, 2025 BU 6664 LAF
Jan 3, 2025 LAF 6046 BU
Jan 27, 2024 BU 6248 LAF
Jan 6, 2024 LAF 5951 BU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BU LAF
Overall 17-17 11-21
Conference 10-8 8-10
Home 10-5 6-10
Away 6-12 5-11
Neutral 1-0 0-0
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 74.6 69.1
Avg Pts Against 74.5 75.4
Massey -7.4 (#273) -10.5 (#318)
Bradley-Terry -1.91 (#324) -2.50 (#342)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.71 (#333) -2.98 (#339)
RPI 0.398 (#337) 0.373 (#350)
Shooting & Four Factors BU LAF
FG% 47.8% 42.3%
3PT% 38.2% 35.0%
REB / G 31.8 32.7
OREB / G 8.7 9.3
AST / TO 1.24 1.22
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.2% 49.2%
TOV% 17.9% 16.1%
ORB% 28.0% 25.8%
FT Rate 22.3% 22.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 56.0% 53.9%
Opp TOV% 13.7% 14.8%
DRB% 72.3% 69.3%
Opp FT Rate 26.0% 24.1%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.