Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | BU -230 LAF +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +4 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | BU -6.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -4.1 (-0.1) | 142.6 (+7.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -4.2 (-0.2) | 142.5 (+7.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -4.1 (-0.1) | 143.8 (+6.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -4.8 (-0.8) | 143.7 (+6.3) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | BU 83 – 67 LAF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BU 66 – 64 LAF |
| Jan 3, 2025 | LAF 60 – 46 BU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BU 62 – 48 LAF |
| Jan 6, 2024 | LAF 59 – 51 BU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-5 | 6-10 |
| Away | 6-12 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#273) | -10.5 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.91 (#324) | -2.50 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.71 (#333) | -2.98 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.398 (#337) | 0.373 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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