Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | LAF -102 BU -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +16 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | LAF -0.4 (-16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -0.5 (-16.5) | 143.6 (+6.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -0.9 (-16.9) | 143.6 (+6.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -1.0 (-17.0) | 143.9 (+6.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -0.3 (-16.3) | 146.3 (+3.7) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | BU 77 – 73 LAF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BU 66 – 64 LAF |
| Jan 3, 2025 | LAF 60 – 46 BU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BU 62 – 48 LAF |
| Jan 6, 2024 | LAF 59 – 51 BU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 6-10 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-11 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -10.2 (#314) | -6.9 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.74 (#346) | -1.87 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.35 (#339) | -3.12 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.355 (#359) | 0.403 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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