Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MSM -188 RID +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RID +4 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -6.9 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -4.0 (-8.0) | 142.1 (-14.1) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -3.8 (-7.8) | 142.7 (-14.7) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -3.6 (-7.6) | 141.9 (-13.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -3.9 (-7.9) | 144.0 (-16.0) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MSM 65 – 55 RID |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MSM 71 – 61 RID |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MSM 79 – 72 RID |
| Jan 17, 2025 | RID 66 – 60 MSM |
| Feb 17, 2024 | RID 61 – 57 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | RID |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-13 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 72.3 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#236) | -6.8 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#315) | -1.34 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#300) | -1.68 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#305) | 0.441 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | RID |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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