Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | RID -111 MSM -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RID win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RID +4 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | RID -0.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (-32.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RID -0.1 (+3.9) | 148.1 (-30.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RID -0.6 (+3.4) | 144.2 (-26.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -0.6 (+4.6) | 147.4 (-29.4) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RID -0.2 (+3.8) | 149.3 (-31.3) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MSM 65 – 55 RID |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MSM 71 – 61 RID |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MSM 79 – 72 RID |
| Jan 17, 2025 | RID 66 – 60 MSM |
| Jan 27, 2024 | RID 66 – 62 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RID | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#272) | -2.9 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#301) | -1.21 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.72 (#300) | -1.17 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#275) | 0.440 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RID | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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