Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | MSM -485 RID +370 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +10 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -9.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -7.4 (+2.6) | 132.9 (-0.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -6.4 (+3.6) | 136.8 (-4.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -7.7 (+2.3) | 135.5 (-3.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -7.3 (+2.7) | 133.4 (-1.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MSM 65 – 55 RID |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MSM 79 – 72 RID |
| Jan 17, 2025 | RID 66 – 60 MSM |
| Feb 17, 2024 | RID 61 – 57 MSM |
| Jan 27, 2024 | RID 66 – 62 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | RID |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 4-25 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 3-17 |
| Home | 8-5 | 4-9 |
| Away | 7-11 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 62.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -9.6 (#306) | -15.5 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#273) | -3.81 (#361) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#277) | -4.78 (#360) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#266) | 0.390 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | RID |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 26.2% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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