Betting Lines
| Spread | RID -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | RID -105 MSM -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RID win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RID +6 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -3.5 (+9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -4.6 (+10.6) | 136.2 (-10.2) | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -1.9 (+7.9) | 135.8 (-9.8) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -3.5 (+9.5) | 135.5 (-9.5) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -3.8 (+9.8) | 137.8 (-11.8) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MSM 65 – 55 RID |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MSM 71 – 61 RID |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MSM 79 – 72 RID |
| Feb 17, 2024 | RID 61 – 57 MSM |
| Jan 27, 2024 | RID 66 – 62 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RID | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 12-8 |
| Home | 5-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-11 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#327) | -3.2 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#317) | 0.57 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.61 (#329) | 0.36 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.405 (#326) | 0.534 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RID | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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