Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | MSM -290 RID +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +7 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -7.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -6.8 (+0.2) | 136.7 (+14.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -6.2 (+0.8) | 138.6 (+12.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -6.0 (+1.0) | 137.3 (+13.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -6.4 (+0.6) | 136.8 (+14.2) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MSM 65 – 55 RID |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MSM 71 – 61 RID |
| Jan 17, 2025 | RID 66 – 60 MSM |
| Feb 17, 2024 | RID 61 – 57 MSM |
| Jan 27, 2024 | RID 66 – 62 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | RID |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-4 | 5-7 |
| Away | 9-8 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#259) | -10.1 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#194) | -1.44 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#219) | -2.06 (#315) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#164) | 0.433 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | RID |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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