Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | DREX -2500 NCAT +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +15 | 109 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -20.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-35.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -15.5 (-0.5) | 141.9 (-32.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -14.4 (+0.6) | 143.1 (-34.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -15.7 (-0.7) | 143.0 (-34.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -14.5 (+0.5) | 143.6 (-34.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | DREX 61 – 60 NCAT |
| Jan 4, 2025 | DREX 68 – 59 NCAT |
| Jan 12, 2024 | DREX 67 – 63 NCAT |
| Jan 27, 2023 | NCAT 68 – 55 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-1 | 4-7 |
| Away | 6-10 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#101) | -11.7 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#122) | -1.50 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#126) | -2.03 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#123) | 0.431 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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