Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | DREX -325 NCAT +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +1 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -6.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (-20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -5.2 (-4.2) | 136.3 (-15.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -6.1 (-5.1) | 135.4 (-14.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -5.3 (-4.3) | 134.6 (-13.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -5.8 (-4.8) | 135.2 (-14.2) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2025 | DREX 68 – 59 NCAT |
| Jan 27, 2024 | DREX 62 – 47 NCAT |
| Jan 12, 2024 | DREX 67 – 63 NCAT |
| Jan 27, 2023 | NCAT 68 – 55 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-4 | 6-6 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#204) | -6.3 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#226) | -1.03 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#217) | -1.57 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#236) | 0.445 (#268) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 33.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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