Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT +700 DREX -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +4 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | DREX -13.5 (+9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -13.6 (+9.6) | 144.1 (-14.1) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -13.1 (+9.1) | 141.8 (-11.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -13.7 (+9.7) | 143.0 (-13.0) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -13.7 (+9.7) | 143.9 (-13.9) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | DREX 61 – 60 NCAT |
| Jan 4, 2025 | DREX 68 – 59 NCAT |
| Jan 27, 2024 | DREX 62 – 47 NCAT |
| Jan 27, 2023 | NCAT 68 – 55 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 4-7 | 13-1 |
| Away | 2-14 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L10 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -12.9 (#344) | 4.6 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#317) | 0.47 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.33 (#321) | 0.44 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.416 (#311) | 0.521 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.0% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 63.7% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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